I suggest that the explanation is that there are gremlins in the attic and that they are bowling.
Gremlins bowling in the attic.
Noises in the attic it is easy to formulate an explanation of those noises.
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You dismiss this explanation as implausible.
Originally in the scene where billy s mom investigates the strange noises in the attic she is decapitated by the gremlins and her head is tossed down the stairs and discovered by billy.
The likelihood of this hypothesis p dh is very high since if there are gremlins bowling in the attic there probably will be noise.
Bayes theorem reverend thomas bayes 1702 1761 posterior probability represents the degree to which we believe a.
But surely you don t think that the noise makes it very probable that there are gremlins up there bowling because that probability of that hypothesis given the data p hd is very low indeed.
You and i are sitting in a cabin one night and we hear rumbling in the attic.
It s true that the snow is white is just a long winded way of saying that snow is white.
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You consider the hypothesis that there are gremlins up there bowling.
But surely you don t think that the noise makes it very probable that there are gremlins up there bowling.
This hypothesis has the property that if it were true it would explain why we heard the noises.
Gremlins in the attic playing bowling likelihood p noise gremlins in the attic p gremlins in the attic noise observation.
Philosopher elliott sober uses gremlins to make a related point.
We consider what could have produced the noise.
The likelihood of this hypothesis is very high since if there are gremlins bowling in the attic there probably will be noise.
I suggest the noises are due to gremlins bowling.
Gremlins bowling in the attic redundancy theory of truth this theory claims that to say that a statement is true is to do nothing more than assert that statement.
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